Government plans for faster population growth

• WA population is projected to grow to 3,061,000 by 2026
• New projections will inform planning strategies and Directions 2031
• Illustrates the need for developments and urban consolidation

During his address to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia today, Planning Minister John Day released the latest population projections for Western Australia and reinforced the State Government's strategy to meet the planning and infrastructure requirements of this growth.

Mr Day said by 2026, the State's population was projected to grow to 3,061,000 with the Perth and Peel region projected to be between 2,275,000 and 2,356,000. 

"This is about 400,000 higher State-wide than a previous projection made in 2006 and is based on a new approach that identifies a most likely projection, supported by two alternative scenarios either side of that trend," he said.         

"The inclusion of the additional scenarios means that these projections can be more accurately applied to strategic planning and provision of infrastructure across WA."

The Minister confirmed that the key planning strategy Directions 2031 remained the tool for the State Government to plan to meet the challenges of the new projections in the Perth and Peel region.

"Population projections evolve as circumstances and conditions change so it is important that our planning is informed by the most relevant and accurate data - these new projections take into consideration both new and existing trends," he said. 

"The expectation of continued economic prosperity is a key consideration, as is the nationwide recovery in fertility which now equals the influence of a slightly higher overseas migration trend."

Mr Day said the new projections for Perth and Peel also further illustrated the need for projects like the Perth Waterfront, Perth City Link, and Riverside - which would create more places for people to live and work in the city - as well as the importance of further urban consolidation across the metropolitan area.

"There is no doubt that we need these projects to help meet the needs of our growing city just as we need to continue to encourage the provision of a diversity of housing options and choices across Perth," he said.

      Fact File

• For more information, see: http://planning.wa.gov.au/WAtomorrow
• The City of Perth is forecast as the fastest growing local government in WA, with an annual average growth rate of 6.7 per cent over the 20-year projection period
• The global population change trend of coastal urban growth has been strongly present in the recent settlement history of WA - this is projected to continue

Minister's office  - 9213 6600

 
 
POPULATION GROWTH - KEY FINDINGS

These medium-term 20-year trend forecasts are used by Government to plan for service delivery and budgeting.  The forecasts also influence planning policy.

Trend forecasts identify future pitfalls or opportunities with ongoing planning seeking to change the past trends

The forecast is based on the ABS's 2006 Census based Estimated Resident Population (ERP).  Additional information after 2006 has been used to adjust the early years of the model - births, deaths, ABS annual estimates and Valuer General's dwelling estimates. 

The new view of the future population endorsed for publication by the Western Australian Planning Commission (WAPC) is based on:

• A nationwide recovery in fertility which now equals the influence of a slightly higher overseas migration trend than in the previous forecast
• The critical assumption that WA's and Australia's past 20 years of good economic performance will continue for another 20 years to drive the assumed continued growth in overseas migration to Australia and consequently to WA

Forecast findings within the most likely future:

• In the 35 years between 1971 and 2006, WA added 1,000,000 people to its population - the next 1,000,000 will likely take the 20 years between 2006 and 2026
• By 2026, the State's population is projected to grow to 3,061,000 with the Perth and Peel region projected to be between 2,275,000 and 2,356,000.  The new projection is about 400,000 higher than the WAPC's previous projection of 2,679,000 by 2026
• The City of Perth is forecast as the fastest growing local government in WA, with an annual average growth rate of 6.7 per cent over the 16 years between 2010 and 2026, adding an extra 28,000 persons to reach 45,900 by 2026
• The local governments with the largest population growth between 2010 and 2026:
  - metropolitan - Wanneroo with 128,000
  - non-metropolitan - Mandurah with 60,000
• Ten local governments will be doubling their populations between 2006 and 2026.  Six out of these ten are non-metropolitan - Capel, Murray, Chittering, Mandurah, Dardanup, and Busselton.  The four metropolitan local governments doubling in the period are - Perth, Serpentine-Jarrahdale, Wanneroo and Kwinana
• The trend of coastal urban growth has been strongly present in the recent settlement history of WA.  This is a global trend, projected to continue.