3 million people in WA by 2030: Planning Minister

30/11/00
Western Australia's population is projected to reach 2.9 million by 2031 and Perth to pass the two million mark by 2030 in a report released today by Planning Minister Graham Kierath.
Mr Kierath said the population projections were a key component of the Western Australian Tomorrow report prepared by the Ministry for Planning, based on the most recent census data.
He said Western Australian Tomorrow reports on population forecasts for local government areas based on anticipated changes to the population growth through natural increase, migration, and immigration.
"The report translates data collected on our State into projections that are vital as we plan a future for our State over the next 30 years," Mr Kierath said.
Mr Kierath said the report estimated population growth at 1.4 per cent per annum for the period 1996-2031.
He said overseas migrants and their offspring are expected to add 709,000 to the population compared with 182,000 from interstate migrants and 251,000 growth from the existing population.
"In addition the focus of the population on the South-West corner of the State is expected to increase marginally," Mr Kierath said.
"The data showed that in 1996, the Perth Metropolitan, Peel and South-West Regions together made up 82.9 per cent of the State's population. By 2031 this is expected to reach 84 per cent."
Mr Kierath said the expected change in the age make-up of the population highlighted the need to plan for the housing, social and medical needs.
He said, for example, between 1996 and 2031 the number of children under 14 is expected to increase by 100,600 (26 per cent) while the working age population (15 - 64 years old) by 689,400 (58 per cent), and the over 65s by 352,400 (192 per cent).
"The trend towards an ageing population is reflected in the increasing median age of the population," Mr Kierath said.
"In 1976 the median age was 26.9 but by 1996 it was 32.6 years and by 2031 it is expected to be about 40 years."
Mr Kierath said the two main factors influencing the ageing of the population are: the falling fertility rate and the improvement in the life expectancy.
"Advances in medical technology and better access to medical services have resulted in the improvement in life expectancy," he said.
Life expectancy for WA males is currently 76.09 years compared with 81.88 years for females, both slightly higher then the national rate. Total Fertility Rate has been falling since 1961, when it was 3.68 to 1.78 in 1999.
There has been a fall in the number of children born to women aged 15-29, suggesting more women are prepared to have children later in life and an increasing number are not having any at all.

Media contact: Zac Donovan (08) 9213 6400