Learn about the benefits of using convection-permitting models to assess climate change in this factsheet supported by a range of peer-reviewed research papers.
This factsheet was co-developed by the Western Australian, New South Wales, and Queensland state governments in partnership with Murdoch University, with assistance from Scientell.
The following peer-reviewed research papers support this factsheet and provide more information about convection-permitting, dynamical and statistical downscaled climate models.
- Andrys, J., Lyons, T., & Kala, J. (2015). Multidecadal evaluation of WRF downscaling capabilities over Western Australia in simulating rainfall and temperature extremes. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54(2), https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0212.1
- Argüeso, D., Romero, R., & Homar, V. (2020). Precipitation features of the Maritime Continent in parameterized and explicit convection models. Journal of Climate, 33(6), https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0416.1
- Boé, J., Mass, A., & Deman, J. (2023). A simple hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method for emulating regional climate models over Western Europe: Evaluation, application, and role of added value? Climate Dynamics, 61, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06552-2
- Brown, A., Dowdy, A., & Lane, T. (2024). Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024
- Clark, P., Roberts, N., Lean, H., Ballard, S., & Charlton-Perez, C. (2016). Convection-permitting models: A step-change in rainfall forecasting. Meteorological Applications, 23(2), https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1538
- Fosser, G., Gaetani, M., & Kendon, E. (2024). Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections. NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(51), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00600-w
- Fosser, G., Khodayar, S., & Berg, P. (2015). Benefit of convection-permitting climate model simulations in the representation of convective precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 44, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2242-1
- Hobeichi, S., Nidhi, N., Shao, Y., Abramowitz, G., Pitman, A., Sherwood, S., & Green, S. (2023). Using machine learning to cut the cost of dynamical downscaling. Earth’s Future, 11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003291
- Kendon, E., Ban, N., Roberts, N., Fowler, H., Roberts, M., Chan, S., Evans, J., Fosser, G., & Wilkinson, J. (2017). Do convection-permitting regional climate models improve projections of future precipitation change? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(1), https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-0004.1
- Kendon, E., Prein, A., Senior, C., & Stirling, A. (2021). Challenges and outlook for convection-permitting climate modelling. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 379(2194), https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0547
- Lucas-Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., & Caillaud, C. (2021). Convection-permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 12(6), https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.731
- Prein, A., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K., Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., & Brisson, E. (2015). A review on regional convection‐permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges. Reviews of Geophysics, 53(2), https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475
- Roberts, M., Reed, K., Bao, Q., Barsugli, J., Camargo, S., Caron, L-P., Chang, P., Chen, C-T., Christensen, H., Danabasoglu, G., Frenger, I., Fučkar, N., Hasson, S., Hewitt, H., Huang, H., Kim, D., Kodama, C., Lai, M., Leung, L., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Ortega, P., Paquin, D., Roberts, C., Scoccimarro, E., Seddon, J., Treguier, A., Tu, C-Y., Ullrich, P., Vidale, P., Wehner, M., Zarzycki, C., Zhang, B., Zhang, W., & Zhao, M. (2025). High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(4), https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1307-2025
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