The Indian Ocean Climate Initiative
The Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI) was a research partnership between the Western Australian government, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) established in 1997. The IOCI concluded in 2012. The external website on the IOCI has now been closed, however relevant content and research reports have been retained on this webpage.
Its vision was to empower the State of Western Australia by providing the best available scientific knowledge to facilitate adaptation to climate variability and change.
The IOCI investigated the causes of a changing climate in WA and developed the first projections of what the future climate might be.
What did the IOCI achieve?
- High-quality rainfall, temperature, and cloud datasets
- High-resolution temperature, rainfall and water availability data
- Over 152 research outputs, including journal articles, book chapters, reports and materials cited over 740 times
- Contributed to policy making in WA by demonstrating the drying trend in south-west WA was not temporary, which contributed to research on crops and informed decision making for where to build infrastructure
Stages of the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative
Understanding climate variability in the Indian Ocean and rainfall decline
(Stage 1: 1998-2002)
This phase of research aimed to better understand how the climate varied by understanding rainfall decline in the late 1960s and the climate variability in the Indian Ocean. It also started initial work to develop forecasts for upcoming seasons that were reliable to enable informed decision making.
Research reports and resources
Causes for change to rainfall in South-west WA and understand our historical climate
(Stage 2: 2003-2006)
The IOCI next explored the causes for changes to rainfall decline in the South-West of WA and what rainfall baselines could be used for management decisions. There was additional work on understanding the historical climate, river flows, groundwater, salinity, sea temperature, sea level, and the Leeuwin current.
Research reports and resources
Key scientific findings from Stage 1 and Stage 2 include:
- Winter rainfall has decreased sharply and suddenly in the region since the mid 1970s.
- The rainfall decline was accompanied by and associated with changes in the large scale atmospheric circulation that are most likely due to a combination of natural variability and the enhanced greenhouse effect.
- While the role of land cover change is unlikely to be a major factor, it should be recognised as a possible second-order effect.
- There is increased confidence in a temperature rise and a decrease in winter rainfall (by as much as 20 per cent relative to the 1960-1990 baseline) by 2030.
Rainfall and temperature variability in WA, and other climate trends
(Stage 3: 2008-2012)
The final phase of research considered rainfall and temperature variability and change for the whole of WA, including understanding North-West WA weather, including tropical cyclones and trends in the area. It also aimed to produce knowledge of past and projected climate trends in the state and make this information available for decision-making.
Research reports and resources
Other resources and information
For more information on observed changes in WA's and Australia's climate, go to the Bureau of Meteorology's Climate website.
Current research under the Climate Science Initiative will continue to increase our understanding of WA's climate.
Work to develop detailed and comprehensive climate change projections, extending 75 years into the future continues today through the Climate Science Initiative.
