Below is a list of frequently asked questions relating to the WA Tomorrow 13 population forecasts.
What is WA Tomorrow 13?
Show moreWA Tomorrow 13 provides the State Government’s latest population forecasts for Western Australia (the State) and sub-state areas. The forecasts are produced by the Department of Planning, Lands and Heritage on behalf of the Western Australian Planning Commission.
The forecasts estimate the future size and age-sex structure of the population based on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. They support land-use planning, infrastructure and service planning, policy development and other analysis by government and the wider community.
How are the forecasts produced?
Show moreThe forecasts are produced by analysing population trends and making assumptions about future births, deaths and migration. Different methods are used to produce the State and sub-state forecasts, with the results aligned to ensure consistency.
More information is available on the WA Tomorrow 13 Methodology page.
What geographies are used for the sub-state forecasts?
Show moreSub-state forecasts are available for Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2s) and Local Government Areas (LGAs).
The SA2s are part of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). In urban areas, an SA2 generally represents one or a small number of related suburbs, and sometimes one or more LGAs in remote areas. For WA Tomorrow 13, SA2s with little or no population have been combined with adjacent SA2s.
Users should check the applicable geographic boundaries when interpreting or comparing forecast results.
What do the forecast bands represent?
Show moreWA Tomorrow 13 provides five bands to represent a range of possible future population outcomes:
- Band A: lower
- Band B: medium-low
- Band C: central
- Band D: medium-high
- Band E: higher
Band C is the central forecast, with an equal chance that the actual population will be higher or lower. Bands A to E represent a broader range of possible outcomes and illustrate the increasing uncertainty over the forecast period.
Band C is generally the most frequently used forecast. However, other bands may be appropriate where planning decisions need to consider lower or higher population outcomes.
How do the WA Tomorrow forecasts differ from various other plans, strategies, targets, scenarios and predictions?
Show moreA forecast estimates what is likely to occur if the assumptions underpinning it are realised. WA Tomorrow 13 is based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration, informed by demographic trends and other relevant information.
A target is an intended or desired outcome. For example, a government strategy may identify a target population to guide long-term planning and investment.
A scenario explores what could occur under a particular set of circumstances, such as a change in policy, economic conditions or a major project.
WA Tomorrow 13 is therefore distinct from population targets and scenarios included in government plans and strategies, including Perth and Peel @ 3.5 million.
How does WA Tomorrow 13 differ from population forecasts from the ABS and other providers?
Show moreThe ABS, the Australian Government’s Centre for Population and other public and private organisations also produce population projections or forecasts.
WA Tomorrow 13 is prepared specifically to support planning and policy development in Western Australia. It incorporates State-specific demographic assumptions and planning information, while providing consistent State, SA2 and LGA population forecasts.
